Sabah — this week's report, explained

run #158Forecast updated 20 Oct 2026

Every number on this chamber's weekly report card, walked through in everyday words. Nothing technical without a translation.

The one-sentence version

If the election were held this week, Gabungan Rakyat Sabah would most likely win the most seats — around 30. That is still short of the 37 seats needed to govern alone.

What this report actually is

Think of it as a weather forecast for politics. The model replayed this election 10,000 times, nudging the real inputs each time — the last election result, how those voters should have shifted by now, opinion polls, and years of election history. Each replay is one possible election night.

The report is just a headcount across those 10,000 replays. When it says a bloc "leads with 30 seats", it means 30 was the most common outcome in the pile — not a promise, and not a guess.

Reading the card, line by line

Pakatan Harapan: 1 seats [0–6] — in the middle replay, Pakatan Harapan ended on 1 seats — and 8 out of 10 replays landed somewhere between 0 and 6. The wider the bracket, the less certain the model is.

Barisan Nasional: 5 seats [1–14] — in the middle replay, Barisan Nasional ended on 5 seats — and 8 out of 10 replays landed somewhere between 1 and 14. The wider the bracket, the less certain the model is.

Gabungan Parti Sarawak: 0 seats [0–1] — in the middle replay, Gabungan Parti Sarawak ended on 0 seats — and 8 out of 10 replays landed somewhere between 0 and 1. The wider the bracket, the less certain the model is.

Gabungan Rakyat Sabah: 30 seats [18–41] — in the middle replay, Gabungan Rakyat Sabah ended on 30 seats — and 8 out of 10 replays landed somewhere between 18 and 41. The wider the bracket, the less certain the model is.

Warisan: 18 seats [10–29] — in the middle replay, Warisan ended on 18 seats — and 8 out of 10 replays landed somewhere between 10 and 29. The wider the bracket, the less certain the model is.

Others / Independents: 13 seats [6–22] — in the middle replay, Others / Independents ended on 13 seats — and 8 out of 10 replays landed somewhere between 6 and 22. The wider the bracket, the less certain the model is.

Perikatan Nasional: 0 seats [0–3] — in the middle replay, Perikatan Nasional ended on 0 seats — and 8 out of 10 replays landed somewhere between 0 and 3. The wider the bracket, the less certain the model is.

Who's up, who's down

These are the seats whose chances moved most since the previous weekly run — usually because news broke about them: a candidate announced, a local row, a shift in coverage. Read a move from X% to Y% as: out of 100 replays, this bloc used to win the seat in X of them; now it wins it in Y.

Nothing moved enough this week to be worth flagging — the model sees this chamber as unchanged since the last run.

The small print, translated

Volatility σ = 0.142 (horizon-scaled; see methodology §9).

"Volatility σ = 0.142" is how jumpy the model thinks this chamber is. A higher number means seat chances swing further week to week; a lower number means the model sees a steady race.

Forecast run #158; inputs hashed and immutable.

The note about inputs being "hashed and immutable" is a bookkeeping promise: the exact data that produced this report is archived, so anyone can re-run it later and get the same numbers back.

What this report is NOT

Not a prediction of the future — it is a snapshot of what would happen if the election were held today.
Not an endorsement, and not a view on who should win — it is arithmetic on public data.
Not precise to the seat — every number is a range, so treat close calls as genuinely close.

Full dashboard →Every seat, sorted →How the model works (plain language) →All weekly reports →