HitungKerusi
Melaka PRN · 27dSarawak PRN · 105d

Sabah DUN forecast

post-PRN 2025 viewrun #11473 seatsmajority 37
PRN Sabah 2025 (29 November) produced a hung, fragmented assembly: GRS 34 · WARISAN 20 · Others 14 · BN 4 · PN 1 of 73 (majority 37). GRS leads the government; the formation card below shows the coalition arithmetic. Per-seat data from the MECo corpus.
P(gov ≥ 37)
22%
GRS working majority
P(hung)
75%
no bloc reaches 37
P(gov ≥ 2/3)
2%
two-thirds line
Largest bloc
GRS
most likely to hold most seats
Gov seats (GRS)
30
median forecast
Toss-ups
25
top bloc below 60%

Seat forecast by most-likely winner

Majority line — 37 seatsMAJ 3773SEATSSABAH-N.039 — GRS 100%SABAH-N.012 — GRS 99%SABAH-N.028 — GRS 99%SABAH-N.037 — GRS 99%SABAH-N.007 — GRS 98%SABAH-N.040 — GRS 98%SABAH-N.033 — GRS 94%SABAH-N.034 — GRS 90%SABAH-N.015 — GRS 88%SABAH-N.013 — GRS 86%SABAH-N.027 — GRS 85%SABAH-N.048 — GRS 83%SABAH-N.009 — GRS 83%SABAH-N.068 — GRS 82%SABAH-N.001 — GRS 76%SABAH-N.029 — GRS 73%SABAH-N.041 — GRS 72%SABAH-N.003 — GRS 70%SABAH-N.046 — GRS 70%SABAH-N.031 — GRS 69%SABAH-N.043 — GRS 69%SABAH-N.032 — GRS 63%SABAH-N.067 — GRS 63%SABAH-N.047 — GRS 61%SABAH-N.060 — GRS 59%SABAH-N.057 — GRS 58%SABAH-N.051 — GRS 56%SABAH-N.024 — GRS 55%SABAH-N.002 — GRS 53%SABAH-N.005 — GRS 52%SABAH-N.049 — GRS 50%SABAH-N.071 — GRS 50%SABAH-N.004 — GRS 41%SABAH-N.073 — GRS 36%SABAH-N.052 — GRS 32%SABAH-N.016 — GRS 30%SABAH-N.045 — BN 81%SABAH-N.059 — BN 61%SABAH-N.063 — BN 60%SABAH-N.058 — BN 45%SABAH-N.065 — WARISAN 100%SABAH-N.064 — WARISAN 100%SABAH-N.066 — WARISAN 98%SABAH-N.021 — WARISAN 95%SABAH-N.020 — WARISAN 92%SABAH-N.072 — WARISAN 90%SABAH-N.019 — WARISAN 86%SABAH-N.025 — WARISAN 85%SABAH-N.022 — WARISAN 79%SABAH-N.069 — WARISAN 78%SABAH-N.055 — WARISAN 72%SABAH-N.061 — WARISAN 70%SABAH-N.062 — WARISAN 60%SABAH-N.053 — WARISAN 56%SABAH-N.054 — WARISAN 55%SABAH-N.017 — WARISAN 48%SABAH-N.035 — WARISAN 42%SABAH-N.010 — WARISAN 40%SABAH-N.030 — WARISAN 36%SABAH-N.011 — OTHERS 99%SABAH-N.044 — OTHERS 92%SABAH-N.042 — OTHERS 90%SABAH-N.014 — OTHERS 77%SABAH-N.026 — OTHERS 73%SABAH-N.023 — OTHERS 72%SABAH-N.006 — OTHERS 72%SABAH-N.008 — OTHERS 70%SABAH-N.050 — OTHERS 65%SABAH-N.038 — OTHERS 60%SABAH-N.036 — OTHERS 58%SABAH-N.018 — OTHERS 48%SABAH-N.070 — OTHERS 46%SABAH-N.056 — OTHERS 43%GOVERNMENT · 36OPPOSITION · 37
GRS36BN4WARISAN19OTHERS14toss-up (25, <60%)

Seats by bloc (median, 80% interval)

Pakatan Harapan
1[0–6]=
Barisan Nasional
5[1–14]▼1
Gabungan Parti Sarawak
0[0–1]
Gabungan Rakyat Sabahgov
30[18–41]▼1
Warisan
18[10–29]▼7
Others / Independents
13[6–22]▲4
Perikatan Nasional
0[0–3]▼1

Who can form the government?

Probability each coalition reaches 37 seats across 10,000 simulated outcomes — arithmetic on the seat maps, not an endorsement.

GRS + BN + PH61%
GRS + BN51%
WARISAN + OTHERS32%
GRS22%

Constituency map — forecast lean (click a seat)

SABAH-N.001 N.01 Banggi — 76%SABAH-N.002 N.02 Bengkoka — 53%SABAH-N.003 N.03 Pitas — 70%SABAH-N.004 N.04 Tanjong Kapor — 41%SABAH-N.005 N.05 Matunggong — 52%SABAH-N.006 N.06 Bandau — 72%SABAH-N.007 N.07 Tandek — 98%SABAH-N.008 N.08 Pintasan — 70%SABAH-N.009 N.09 Tempasuk — 83%SABAH-N.010 N.10 Usukan — 40%SABAH-N.011 N.11 Kadamaian — 99%SABAH-N.012 N.12 Sulaman — 99%SABAH-N.013 N.13 Pantai Dalit — 86%SABAH-N.014 N.14 Tamparuli — 77%SABAH-N.015 N.15 Kiulu — 88%SABAH-N.016 N.16 Karambunai — 30%SABAH-N.017 N.17 Darau — 48%SABAH-N.018 N.18 Inanam — 48%SABAH-N.019 N.19 Likas — 86%SABAH-N.020 N.20 Api-Api — 92%SABAH-N.021 N.21 Luyang — 95%SABAH-N.022 N.22 Tanjung Aru — 79%SABAH-N.023 N.23 Petagas — 72%SABAH-N.024 N.24 Tanjung Keramat — 55%SABAH-N.025 N.25 Kapayan — 85%SABAH-N.026 N.26 Moyog — 73%SABAH-N.027 N.27 Limbahau — 85%SABAH-N.028 N.28 Kawang — 99%SABAH-N.029 N.29 Pantai Manis — 73%SABAH-N.030 N.30 Bongawan — 36%SABAH-N.031 N.31 Membakut — 69%SABAH-N.032 N.32 Klias — 63%SABAH-N.033 N.33 Kuala Penyu — 94%SABAH-N.034 N.34 Lumadan — 90%SABAH-N.035 N.35 Sindumin — 42%SABAH-N.036 N.36 Kundasang — 58%SABAH-N.037 N.37 Karanaan — 99%SABAH-N.038 N.38 Paginatan — 60%SABAH-N.039 N.39 Tambunan — 100%SABAH-N.040 N.40 Bingkor — 98%SABAH-N.041 N.41 Liawan — 72%SABAH-N.042 N.42 Melalap — 90%SABAH-N.043 N.43 Kemabong — 69%SABAH-N.044 N.44 Tulid — 92%SABAH-N.045 N.45 Sook — 81%SABAH-N.046 N.46 Nabawan — 70%SABAH-N.047 N.47 Telupid — 61%SABAH-N.048 N.48 Sugut — 83%SABAH-N.049 N.49 Labuk — 50%SABAH-N.050 N.50 Gum-Gum — 65%SABAH-N.051 N.51 Sungai Manila — 56%SABAH-N.052 N.52 Sungai Sibuga — 32%SABAH-N.053 N.53 Sekong — 56%SABAH-N.054 N.54 Karamunting — 55%SABAH-N.055 N.55 Elopura — 72%SABAH-N.056 N.56 Tanjong Papat — 43%SABAH-N.057 N.57 Kuamut — 58%SABAH-N.058 N.58 Lamag — 45%SABAH-N.059 N.59 Sukau — 61%SABAH-N.060 N.60 Tungku — 59%SABAH-N.061 N.61 Segama — 70%SABAH-N.062 N.62 Silam — 60%SABAH-N.063 N.63 Kunak — 60%SABAH-N.064 N.64 Sulabayan — 100%SABAH-N.065 N.65 Senallang — 100%SABAH-N.066 N.66 Bugaya — 98%SABAH-N.067 N.67 Balung — 63%SABAH-N.068 N.68 Apas — 82%SABAH-N.069 N.69 Sri Tanjong — 78%SABAH-N.070 N.70 Kukusan — 46%SABAH-N.071 N.71 Tanjung Batu — 50%SABAH-N.072 N.72 Merotai — 90%SABAH-N.073 N.73 Sebatik — 36%Constituency boundaries (MECo-maps) — faded seats are toss-ups (top bloc < 60%)