JOHOR-N.003 — Pemanis

Why this forecast

Across PRN-JOHOR-2022–PRN-JOHOR-2026, time-decayed, BN holds the baseline edge at Pemanis (66.6% to 28.5%) Shrunk toward the state baseline and brought to today: BN 65.1%, PH 28.2%. No poll or by-election moves the swing layer. Tagged coverage adds nothing here (0 stories). Expected vote: BN 65.1% vs PH 28.2% — win 95% vs 4%. BN holds barring an upset. Run #149 → #155 moved nothing beyond noise.

Written from run #155's inputs — every figure traces to the methodology.