HitungKerusi
Melaka PRN · 27dSarawak PRN · 105d

Melaka DUN forecast

PRN Melaka 2026 outlookrun #11228 seatsmajority 15
🗳 PRN Melaka: polling day is 14 November 2026. Baseline: PRN 2021 (BN 21 · PH 5 · PN 2 of 28). During the campaign the semantic layer moves seats as news accumulates — check the weekly update cadence on the guide page.
P(gov ≥ 15)
96%
BN+PN working majority
P(hung)
7%
no bloc reaches 15
P(gov ≥ 2/3)
77%
two-thirds line
Largest bloc
BN
most likely to hold most seats
Gov seats (BN+PN)
21
median forecast
Toss-ups
3
top bloc below 60%

Seat forecast by most-likely winner

Majority line — 15 seatsMAJ 1528SEATSMELAKA-N.004 — BN 100%MELAKA-N.027 — BN 99%MELAKA-N.018 — BN 99%MELAKA-N.010 — BN 99%MELAKA-N.005 — BN 98%MELAKA-N.003 — BN 98%MELAKA-N.001 — BN 97%MELAKA-N.028 — BN 97%MELAKA-N.025 — BN 94%MELAKA-N.002 — BN 92%MELAKA-N.023 — BN 92%MELAKA-N.008 — BN 84%MELAKA-N.026 — BN 83%MELAKA-N.012 — BN 82%MELAKA-N.006 — BN 77%MELAKA-N.014 — BN 74%MELAKA-N.007 — BN 74%MELAKA-N.009 — BN 73%MELAKA-N.013 — BN 63%MELAKA-N.011 — BN 62%MELAKA-N.021 — BN 60%MELAKA-N.015 — BN 59%MELAKA-N.024 — BN 54%MELAKA-N.019 — PH 100%MELAKA-N.020 — PH 100%MELAKA-N.022 — PH 100%MELAKA-N.016 — PH 100%MELAKA-N.017 — PH 75%GOVERNMENT · 23OPPOSITION · 5
BN23PH5toss-up (3, <60%)

Seats by bloc (median, 80% interval)

Pakatan Harapan
7[4–12]▲2
Barisan Nasionalgov
20[15–23]▼1
Gabungan Parti Sarawak
0[0–0]
Gabungan Rakyat Sabah
0[0–0]
Warisan
0[0–0]
Others / Independents
0[0–0]
Perikatan Nasionalgov
1[0–3]▼1

Who can form the government?

Probability each coalition reaches 15 seats across 10,000 simulated outcomes — arithmetic on the seat maps, not an endorsement.

PH + BN100%
BN + PN96%
BN90%
PH3%

Constituency map — forecast lean (click a seat)

MELAKA-N.001 N.01 Kuala Linggi — 97%MELAKA-N.002 N.02 Tanjung Bidara — 92%MELAKA-N.003 N.03 Ayer Limau — 98%MELAKA-N.004 N.04 Lendu — 100%MELAKA-N.005 N.05 Taboh Naning — 98%MELAKA-N.006 N.06 Rembia — 77%MELAKA-N.007 N.07 Gadek — 74%MELAKA-N.008 N.08 Machap Jaya — 84%MELAKA-N.009 N.09 Durian Tunggal — 73%MELAKA-N.010 N.10 Asahan — 99%MELAKA-N.011 N.11 Sungai Udang — 62%MELAKA-N.012 N.12 Pantai Kundor — 82%MELAKA-N.013 N.13 Paya Rumput — 63%MELAKA-N.014 N.14 Kelebang — 74%MELAKA-N.015 N.15 Pengkalan Batu — 59%MELAKA-N.016 N.16 Ayer Keroh — 100%MELAKA-N.017 N.17 Bukit Katil — 75%MELAKA-N.018 N.18 Ayer Molek — 99%MELAKA-N.019 N.19 Kesidang — 100%MELAKA-N.020 N.20 Kota Laksamana — 100%MELAKA-N.021 N.21 Duyong — 60%MELAKA-N.022 N.22 Bandar Hilir — 100%MELAKA-N.023 N.23 Telok Mas — 92%MELAKA-N.024 N.24 Bemban — 54%MELAKA-N.025 N.25 Rim — 94%MELAKA-N.026 N.26 Serkam — 83%MELAKA-N.027 N.27 Merlimau — 99%MELAKA-N.028 N.28 Sungai Rambai — 97%Constituency boundaries (MECo-maps) — faded seats are toss-ups (top bloc < 60%)