JOHOR-N.012 — Bentayan

Why this forecast

Across PRN-JOHOR-2022–PRN-JOHOR-2026, time-decayed, PH holds the baseline edge at Bentayan (64.1% to 34.7%) Shrunk toward the state baseline and brought to today: PH 61.7%, BN 34.9%. No poll or by-election moves the swing layer. Tagged coverage adds nothing here (0 stories). Expected vote: PH 61.7% vs BN 34.9% — win 89% vs 10%. PH holds barring an upset. Run #149 → #155 moved nothing beyond noise.

Written from run #155's inputs — every figure traces to the methodology.