JOHOR-N.018 — Sri Medan

Why this forecast

Across PRN-JOHOR-2022–PRN-JOHOR-2026, time-decayed, BN holds the baseline edge at Sri Medan (74.3% to 17.4%) Shrunk toward the state baseline and brought to today: BN 72.4%, PN 16.8%. No poll or by-election moves the swing layer. Tagged coverage adds nothing here (0 stories). Expected vote: BN 72.4% vs PN 16.8% — win 99% vs 0%. BN holds barring an upset. Run #149 → #155 moved nothing beyond noise.

Written from run #155's inputs — every figure traces to the methodology.