JOHOR-N.029 — Mahkota

Why this forecast

Across PRN-JOHOR-2022–PRN-JOHOR-2026, time-decayed, BN holds the baseline edge at Mahkota (64.8% to 30.2%) Shrunk toward the state baseline and brought to today: BN 63.8%, PH 29.8%. No poll or by-election moves the swing layer. Tagged coverage adds nothing here (0 stories). Expected vote: BN 63.8% vs PH 29.8% — win 94% vs 6%. BN holds barring an upset. Run #149 → #155 moved nothing beyond noise.

Written from run #155's inputs — every figure traces to the methodology.