JOHOR-N.043 — Permas

Why this forecast

Across PRN-JOHOR-2022–PRN-JOHOR-2026, time-decayed, BN holds the baseline edge at Permas (63.1% to 27.4%) Shrunk toward the state baseline and brought to today: BN 62.2%, PH 27.1%. No poll or by-election moves the swing layer. Tagged coverage adds nothing here (0 stories). Expected vote: BN 62.2% vs PH 27.1% — win 94% vs 5%. BN holds barring an upset. Run #149 → #155 moved nothing beyond noise.

Written from run #155's inputs — every figure traces to the methodology.