JOHOR-N.052 — Senai

Why this forecast

Across PRN-JOHOR-2022–PRN-JOHOR-2026, time-decayed, PH holds the baseline edge at Senai (52.1% to 43.5%) Shrunk toward the state baseline and brought to today: PH 50.9%, BN 43.1%. No poll or by-election moves the swing layer. Tagged coverage adds nothing here (0 stories). Expected vote: PH 50.9% vs BN 43.1% — win 64% vs 35%. Run #149 → #155 moved nothing beyond noise.

Written from run #155's inputs — every figure traces to the methodology.