JOHOR-N.053 — Benut

Why this forecast

Across PRN-JOHOR-2022–PRN-JOHOR-2026, time-decayed, BN holds the baseline edge at Benut (84.9% to 12.6%) Shrunk toward the state baseline and brought to today: BN 82.3%, PH 13.1%. No poll or by-election moves the swing layer. Tagged coverage adds nothing here (0 stories). Expected vote: BN 82.3% vs PH 13.1% — win 100% vs 0%. BN holds barring an upset. Run #149 → #155 moved nothing beyond noise.

Written from run #155's inputs — every figure traces to the methodology.