MELAKA-N.001 — Kuala Linggi

Why this forecast

BN won Kuala Linggi in PRN Melaka 2021 (51.0% to 24.7% over PH) With a single election 5 years old, the model pulls the seat toward the state baseline: BN 43.1%, PH 30.6%. No poll or by-election moves the swing layer. Tagged coverage adds nothing here (0 stories). Expected vote: BN 43.1% vs PH 30.6% — win 97% vs 3%. BN holds barring an upset. Run #150 → #156 moved nothing beyond noise.

Written from run #156's inputs — every figure traces to the methodology.