MELAKA-N.005 — Taboh Naning

Why this forecast

BN won Taboh Naning in PRN Melaka 2021 (55.9% to 20.4% over PH) With a single election 5 years old, the model pulls the seat toward the state baseline: BN 44.5%, PH 29.7%. No poll or by-election moves the swing layer. Tagged coverage adds nothing here (0 stories). Expected vote: BN 44.5% vs PH 29.7% — win 98% vs 2%. BN holds barring an upset. Run #150 → #156 moved nothing beyond noise.

Written from run #156's inputs — every figure traces to the methodology.