NEGERI_SEMBILAN-N.002 — Pertang

Why this forecast

Across PRN-NSN-2023–PRN-NSN-2026, time-decayed, BN holds the baseline edge at Pertang (67.8% to 23.2%) Shrunk toward the state baseline and brought to today: BN 64.3%, PH 24.0%. No poll or by-election moves the swing layer. Tagged coverage adds nothing here (0 stories). Expected vote: BN 64.3% vs PH 24.0% — win 96% vs 3%. BN holds barring an upset. Run #151 → #157 moved nothing beyond noise.

Written from run #157's inputs — every figure traces to the methodology.