NEGERI_SEMBILAN-N.026 — Chembong

Why this forecast

Across PRN-NSN-2023–PRN-NSN-2026, time-decayed, BN holds the baseline edge at Chembong (79.9% to 13.8%) Shrunk toward the state baseline and brought to today: BN 76.8%, PH 14.4%. No poll or by-election moves the swing layer. Tagged coverage adds nothing here (0 stories). Expected vote: BN 76.8% vs PH 14.4% — win 100% vs 0%. BN holds barring an upset. Run #151 → #157 moved nothing beyond noise.

Written from run #157's inputs — every figure traces to the methodology.