NEGERI_SEMBILAN-N.031 — Bagan Pinang

Why this forecast

Across PRN-NSN-2023–PRN-NSN-2026, time-decayed, PN holds the baseline edge at Bagan Pinang (71.8% to 18.8%) Shrunk toward the state baseline and brought to today: PN 69.0%, PH 19.3%. No poll or by-election moves the swing layer. Tagged coverage adds nothing here (0 stories). Expected vote: PN 69.0% vs PH 19.3% — win 99% vs 1%. PN holds barring an upset. Run #151 → #157 moved nothing beyond noise.

Written from run #157's inputs — every figure traces to the methodology.