SARAWAK-N.025 — Simunjan

Why this forecast

GPS won Simunjan in PRN Sarawak 2021 (73.0% to 18.1% over OTHERS) With a single election 5 years old, the model pulls the seat toward the state baseline: GPS 64.8%, OTHERS 23.6%. No poll or by-election moves the swing layer. Tagged coverage adds nothing here (0 stories). Expected vote: GPS 64.8% vs OTHERS 23.6% — win 100% vs 0%. GPS holds barring an upset. Run #153 → #159 moved nothing beyond noise.

Written from run #159's inputs — every figure traces to the methodology.