SARAWAK-N.029 — Beting Maro

Why this forecast

GPS won Beting Maro in PRN Sarawak 2021 (51.6% to 9.7% over OTHERS) With a single election 5 years old, the model pulls the seat toward the state baseline: GPS 56.1%, OTHERS 19.4%. No poll or by-election moves the swing layer. Tagged coverage adds nothing here (0 stories). Expected vote: GPS 56.1% vs OTHERS 19.4% — win 100% vs 0%. GPS holds barring an upset. Run #153 → #159 moved nothing beyond noise.

Written from run #159's inputs — every figure traces to the methodology.