Weekly report

The latest forecast run per chamber — headline numbers, bloc intervals, and the seats that moved most since the previous run. Same inputs, same words.

Parliament

run #80

Parliament: Perikatan Nasional leads with 76 seats [69–83] of 112 needed. P(no single bloc reaches 112) = 100%; P(PH+BN majority) = 34%.

Pakatan Harapan: 73 seats [66–81]Barisan Nasional: 35 seats [28–43]Gabungan Parti Sarawak: 21 seats [19–24]Gabungan Rakyat Sabah: 7 seats [5–8]Warisan: 4 seats [2–7]Others / Independents: 5 seats [3–7]Perikatan Nasional: 76 seats [69–83]

Volatility σ = 0.085 (horizon-scaled; see methodology §9).

Last recorded turnout (GE15): 73.4% — differential turnout remains an unmodelled risk (methodology §11).

Forecast run #80; inputs hashed and immutable.

Melaka

run #82

Melaka DUN: Barisan Nasional leads with 20 seats [15–23] of 15 needed.

Pakatan Harapan: 7 seats [4–12]Barisan Nasional: 20 seats [15–23]Perikatan Nasional: 1 seats [0–3]

Volatility σ = 0.049 (horizon-scaled; see methodology §9).

Forecast run #82; inputs hashed and immutable.

Sarawak

run #85

Sarawak DUN: Gabungan Parti Sarawak leads with 80 seats [77–82] of 42 needed.

Gabungan Parti Sarawak: 80 seats [77–82]Others / Independents: 2 seats [0–5]

Volatility σ = 0.057 (horizon-scaled; see methodology §9).

Forecast run #85; inputs hashed and immutable.

Johor

run #81

Johor DUN: Barisan Nasional leads with 46 seats [37–53] of 28 needed.

Pakatan Harapan: 9 seats [3–18]Barisan Nasional: 46 seats [37–53]Perikatan Nasional: 0 seats [0–2]

Biggest movers since last run

Bekok — PH ▼ from 12% to 12%
Gambir — PH ▼ from 8% to 8%
Yong Peng — PH ▼ from 17% to 17%
Bekok — BN ▲ from 88% to 88%
Gambir — BN ▲ from 91% to 91%

Volatility σ = 0.151 (horizon-scaled; see methodology §9).

Forecast run #81; inputs hashed and immutable.

Negeri Sembilan

run #83

Negeri Sembilan DUN: Barisan Nasional leads with 16 seats [13–19] of 19 needed.

Pakatan Harapan: 14 seats [9–17]Barisan Nasional: 16 seats [13–19]Others / Independents: 0 seats [0–1]Perikatan Nasional: 6 seats [4–8]

Biggest movers since last run

Rahang — BN ▼ from 8% to 8%
Jeram Padang — BN ▲ from 92% to 92%
Rahang — PH ▲ from 91% to 91%
Sikamat — PN ▲ from 70% to 70%
Jeram Padang — OTHERS ▼ from 3% to 3%

Volatility σ = 0.152 (horizon-scaled; see methodology §9).

Forecast run #83; inputs hashed and immutable.